Week 48: R Rating

 


Professor Chris Whitty: What is evident is that there are rising case numbers of chickenpox in the Theivamanoharan household. First slide please.

If you look at this slide, you will see the R rating has moved from 0 to 1. We know now the infection originated with the eldest child, Kit. We were waiting with bated breath to see what the infection did next. We, of course, hoped it wouldn’t move on to the youngest child, Jude, but unfortunately the science made us aware this was unlikely; the likely outcome being it would. So here are with the second child infected. It’s important we act now to disrupt the rating and avoid a pandemic.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam: A way of looking at this is to use a train analogy. There are two leaves on the track. There is a little greasy mulch covering the rails. This mulch is to rails what ice is to roads. These leaves can be cleared quite quickly and the train can continue its journey. However, if we aren’t careful, we’re shaking the tree; more leaves will fall and it will take longer for the train to take passengers forward. Therefore: Don’t shake the tree. Stay away from the Theivamanoharan household!

Professor Chris Whitty: Yes, Jonathan is right. We’re particularly concerned about those at higher risk. Kit and Jude’s uncle for instance who has never had chickenpox. Chickenpox can be a bigger issue for the over 18’s. We need to protect these people as a matter of urgency. Next slide please.

You can see on this slide the age of a person alongside the temperature they're likely to get. For children it’s around 38 degrees but for adults it’s pushing 100 degrees. We don’t want people’s blood to boil like water, which is why we must initiate lockdown on the Theivamanoharan house immediately.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam: What Chris is saying is the Theivamanoharan station is closed. We know it’s inconvenient because it’s the central hub of Britain. The London Waterloo if you will. We appreciate that they are your favourite social network; however, we urge you to use other networks at this time. The Theivamanoharan station will be back up and running soon, just be patient.

Professor Chris Whitty: By staying away from the Theivamanoharan children we can stabilise the rate of infection. It’s short-term pain for long-term gain. So protect yourself and stay away is the message.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam: Don’t shake that tree!

Professor Chris Whitty: Thank you.

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam: The station is closed! 

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